The apparatus
The Lab
Every number the story cites, with the machinery visible. Three instruments are laid out here: the preregistered isolated-lineage prediction test, the permutation null models behind the constellation, and the agreement between independent readers. All figures regenerate from the evidence indexes.
Instrument I · preregistered
The isolated-lineage prediction test
The constellation was learned from 84 connected traditions (40,933 records, 334 conserved edges), predictions were fixed in the preregistration, then 23 isolated lineages (7,226 records) were opened.
82.9% edges reproduced
80.3% null mean
84.4% best shuffle
192/200 permutations beaten
×1.033 lift
leakage_flag
| Lineage | Records | Training edges present |
|---|---|---|
| native american plains | 2,212 | 209 |
| native american northwest coast | 1,014 | 162 |
| native american southwest | 808 | 151 |
| australian aboriginal | 572 | 84 |
| native american great lakes | 326 | 86 |
| inuit | 318 | 85 |
| guiana amerindian | 284 | 86 |
| siberian | 264 | 99 |
| native american southeast | 212 | 126 |
| zulu | 199 | 33 |
| hopi | 146 | 138 |
| zuni | 126 | 91 |
| andamanese | 123 | 50 |
| navajo | 122 | 64 |
| nahua maya inca | 102 | 150 |
| hawaiian | 84 | 68 |
| san | 66 | 13 |
| indigenous australian | 65 | 23 |
| amazonian | 52 | 10 |
| maya | 50 | 6 |
| khoisan south african | 46 | 2 |
| nahua | 19 | 21 |
| mesoamerican | 16 | 23 |
Instrument II · null model
The constellation against chance
200 degree-preserving shuffles across 103 traditions (edge thresholds: pair count ≥ 3, traditions ≥ 4).
346 observed edges
324.64 null mean
332 null max
6.81 z-score
0.00498 p-value
| Edge | Traditions | Null hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| axis mundi — sacred fire | 5 | 0.0% |
| sacred fire — sacred waters | 5 | 0.0% |
| sacred fire — sacred time | 4 | 0.0% |
| axis mundi — sacred waters | 7 | 0.5% |
| flood and renewal — sacred waters | 6 | 0.5% |
| sacred fire — sacred love | 6 | 0.5% |
| sacred fire — serpent guardian | 5 | 0.5% |
| sacred fire — trickster | 4 | 0.5% |
| initiation — sacred fire | 4 | 5.0% |
| sacred waters — serpent guardian | 9 | 7.5% |
| death and transformation — sacred fire | 7 | 9.5% |
| sacred fire — shapeshifter | 5 | 9.5% |
Instrument III · replication
Agreement between independent readers
Independent model readers extracted motifs from the same passages. Agreement is the mean Jaccard overlap of their canonical-family assignments per shared passage.
| Run | Passages parsed | Parse failures |
|---|---|---|
| motif-extraction-2026-07-17-azure-wave1 | 3,217 | 60 |
| replication-gpt54-2026-07-17 | 3,093 | 293 |
| replication-gpt56terra-2026-07-17 | 3,371 | 15 |
| replication-gpt51-2026-07-17 | 1,287 | 2,097 |
| canon-wave10-2026-07-21 | 7,895 | 16 |
| replication-gpt54-wave10-2026-07-21 | 6,794 | 1,057 |
| Reader pair | Shared passages | Raw Jaccard | Canonical Jaccard | Exact match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| motif-extraction-2026-07-17-azure-wave1 × replication-gpt54-2026-07-17 | 2,970 | 61.9% | 63.3% | 31.9% |
| motif-extraction-2026-07-17-azure-wave1 × replication-gpt56terra-2026-07-17 | 3,215 | 51.1% | 52.5% | 25.0% |
| motif-extraction-2026-07-17-azure-wave1 × replication-gpt51-2026-07-17 | 1,229 | 50.2% | 52.1% | 19.8% |
| replication-gpt54-2026-07-17 × replication-gpt56terra-2026-07-17 | 3,090 | 61.7% | 62.8% | 38.8% |
| replication-gpt54-2026-07-17 × replication-gpt51-2026-07-17 | 1,226 | 44.5% | 46.1% | 18.4% |
| replication-gpt56terra-2026-07-17 × replication-gpt51-2026-07-17 | 1,278 | 35.0% | 36.0% | 14.8% |
| canon-wave10-2026-07-21 × replication-gpt54-wave10-2026-07-21 | 6,771 | 70.2% | 71.1% | 54.6% |
Instrument IV · falsification
The sequence-grammar test
72 strong precedence pairs (one family consistently before another within texts) were tested against within-text permutation. A pair survives when chance matched its consistency in at most 5% of shuffles: 61 dissolved, 11 held. Survivors are marked in gold.
| Ordering | Texts | Consistency | Null mean | Chance as extreme | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sacred knowledge → trickster | 240 | 83.3% | 72.7% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → mystical quest | 289 | 80.6% | 72.1% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → death and transformation | 313 | 79.9% | 70.5% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → divine judgment | 293 | 77.1% | 71.5% | 0.0% | survives |
| hero journey → afterlife passage | 275 | 76.7% | 70.4% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → initiation | 304 | 76.0% | 69.1% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → royal legitimacy | 272 | 75.4% | 69.6% | 0.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → descent | 186 | 91.4% | 85.9% | 1.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → sacred twins | 246 | 82.9% | 78.0% | 1.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → sacrifice | 319 | 75.9% | 71.0% | 1.0% | survives |
| hero journey → trickster | 240 | 76.7% | 71.7% | 4.0% | survives |
| sacred knowledge → sacred love | 255 | 80.4% | 76.4% | 6.0% | chance suffices |
| cosmic origin → sacred fire | 81 | 80.2% | 73.3% | 7.0% | chance suffices |
| divine judgment → covenant | 200 | 76.0% | 72.1% | 8.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → covenant | 208 | 88.0% | 85.2% | 11.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → sacred love | 256 | 75.4% | 72.4% | 11.0% | chance suffices |
| miraculous child → sacred waters | 125 | 90.4% | 86.8% | 13.0% | chance suffices |
| divine judgment → mother goddess | 116 | 80.2% | 75.7% | 13.0% | chance suffices |
| miraculous child → descent | 181 | 77.3% | 74.1% | 14.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → afterlife passage | 274 | 80.3% | 78.4% | 19.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → sacred time | 275 | 79.3% | 77.0% | 20.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → descent | 186 | 88.2% | 86.0% | 24.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → ascent | 302 | 76.5% | 74.7% | 26.0% | chance suffices |
| miraculous child → sacred fire | 95 | 90.5% | 88.5% | 32.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → axis mundi | 276 | 83.3% | 82.3% | 34.0% | chance suffices |
| shapeshifter → sacred fire | 96 | 87.5% | 85.5% | 36.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred love → sacred waters | 114 | 83.3% | 81.7% | 36.0% | chance suffices |
| royal legitimacy → sacred fire | 97 | 85.6% | 84.2% | 41.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → duality | 304 | 78.6% | 78.1% | 41.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred love → sacred fire | 88 | 86.4% | 85.4% | 42.0% | chance suffices |
| flood and renewal → sacred waters | 121 | 76.0% | 75.3% | 42.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → axis mundi | 274 | 75.5% | 75.1% | 43.0% | chance suffices |
| axis mundi → sacred waters | 123 | 78.0% | 77.5% | 44.0% | chance suffices |
| shapeshifter → sacred waters | 123 | 84.6% | 83.3% | 46.0% | chance suffices |
| duality → sacred fire | 96 | 80.2% | 79.2% | 46.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → covenant | 209 | 80.9% | 80.7% | 47.0% | chance suffices |
| axis mundi → sacred fire | 94 | 81.9% | 80.7% | 48.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → sacred waters | 131 | 91.6% | 91.4% | 51.0% | chance suffices |
| divine judgment → sacred fire | 100 | 88.0% | 87.1% | 51.0% | chance suffices |
| flood and renewal → sacred fire | 95 | 78.9% | 78.7% | 55.0% | chance suffices |
| divine judgment → sacred waters | 126 | 84.1% | 84.3% | 60.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → flood and renewal | 269 | 81.8% | 82.2% | 60.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → sacred waters | 132 | 93.9% | 94.1% | 62.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred exchange → sacred waters | 129 | 92.2% | 92.8% | 65.0% | chance suffices |
| culture hero → sacred fire | 90 | 81.1% | 82.1% | 66.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred exchange → descent | 184 | 81.5% | 82.3% | 69.0% | chance suffices |
| shapeshifter → descent | 170 | 75.9% | 77.5% | 69.0% | chance suffices |
| royal legitimacy → sacred waters | 122 | 82.0% | 83.4% | 71.0% | chance suffices |
| ascent → sacred waters | 127 | 80.3% | 82.0% | 71.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → sacred fire | 101 | 92.1% | 92.8% | 74.0% | chance suffices |
| hero journey → mother goddess | 116 | 75.9% | 77.4% | 75.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → sacred fire | 101 | 94.1% | 95.1% | 76.8% | chance suffices |
| culture hero → sacred waters | 112 | 76.8% | 79.1% | 81.0% | chance suffices |
| serpent guardian → sacred waters | 122 | 79.5% | 81.2% | 82.0% | chance suffices |
| death and transformation → sacred waters | 128 | 83.6% | 85.9% | 85.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred exchange → covenant | 204 | 78.9% | 81.1% | 88.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → cosmic origin | 211 | 83.4% | 86.0% | 89.0% | chance suffices |
| miraculous child → mother goddess | 116 | 76.7% | 80.1% | 89.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred time → sacred fire | 91 | 75.8% | 79.9% | 89.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred knowledge → mother goddess | 117 | 82.1% | 85.9% | 90.0% | chance suffices |
| death and transformation → sacred fire | 97 | 84.5% | 87.9% | 91.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred exchange → sacred fire | 101 | 90.1% | 93.3% | 93.0% | chance suffices |
| sacrifice → sacred fire | 100 | 83.0% | 87.0% | 94.0% | chance suffices |
| serpent guardian → sacred fire | 95 | 78.9% | 83.3% | 95.0% | chance suffices |
| ascent → sacred fire | 98 | 79.6% | 85.4% | 96.0% | chance suffices |
| initiation → sacred waters | 128 | 79.7% | 84.7% | 98.0% | chance suffices |
| mystical quest → sacred fire | 93 | 78.5% | 86.1% | 98.0% | chance suffices |
| mystical quest → sacred waters | 121 | 79.3% | 84.4% | 99.0% | chance suffices |
| afterlife passage → sacred fire | 87 | 77.0% | 84.6% | 99.0% | chance suffices |
| sacrifice → sacred waters | 128 | 78.1% | 85.1% | 100.0% | chance suffices |
| initiation → sacred fire | 99 | 77.8% | 86.3% | 100.0% | chance suffices |
| sacred exchange → mother goddess | 116 | 75.9% | 83.1% | 100.0% | chance suffices |
Preregistration: docs/prereg-isolated-lineage-test.md · indexes regenerated 2026-07-23.